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Research ArticleArticle

Exploring multiple steady states in Earth's long-term carbon cycle

Benjamin J. W. Mills, Stephen Tennenbaum and David Schwartzman
American Journal of Science September 2021, 321 (7) 1033-1044; DOI: https://doi.org/10.2475/07.2021.01
Benjamin J. W. Mills
*School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
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  • For correspondence: b.mills@leeds.ac.uk
Stephen Tennenbaum
**Department of Biology, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA
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David Schwartzman
***Department of Biology, Howard University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
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Abstract

The long-term carbon cycle regulates Earth's climate and atmospheric CO2 levels over multimillion-year timescales, but it is not clear that this system has a single steady state for a given input rate of CO2. In this paper we explore the possibility for multiple steady states in the long-term climate system. Using a simple carbon cycle box model, we show that the location of precipitation bands around the tropics and high mid-latitudes, coupled with the response of the terrestrial biosphere to local surface temperature, can result in system bi-stability. Here, maximum CO2 drawdown can occur when either the tropics or high mid-latitudes are at the photosynthetic optimum temperature of around 25°C, and a period of instability can exist between these states. We suggest that this dynamic has influenced climate variations over Phanerozoic time, and that higher steady state surface temperatures may be easier to reach than is commonly demonstrated in simple ‘GEOCARB style’ carbon cycle models.

  • carbon cycle
  • Earth history
  • weathering
  • biotic feedbacks
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American Journal of Science: 321 (7)
American Journal of Science
Vol. 321, Issue 7
1 Sep 2021
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Exploring multiple steady states in Earth's long-term carbon cycle
Benjamin J. W. Mills, Stephen Tennenbaum, David Schwartzman
American Journal of Science Sep 2021, 321 (7) 1033-1044; DOI: 10.2475/07.2021.01

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Exploring multiple steady states in Earth's long-term carbon cycle
Benjamin J. W. Mills, Stephen Tennenbaum, David Schwartzman
American Journal of Science Sep 2021, 321 (7) 1033-1044; DOI: 10.2475/07.2021.01
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • INTRODUCTION
    • FEEDBACKS AT DIFFERENT GLOBAL TEMPERATURES
    • A SIMPLE CARBON CYCLE MODEL
    • MODEL RESULTS
    • DISCUSSION
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
    • AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
    • Appendix
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Keywords

  • Carbon cycle
  • Earth history
  • weathering
  • biotic feedbacks

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